Voters in both parties are already fired up and ready to cast their ballots in November. Donald Trump is a big reason why.
Enthusiasm about the midterm election is at its highest point in at least 20 years, buoyed by large numbers in both parties who say the president will be a major factor in their vote this fall.
A new Pew Research Center survey released Wednesday shows far greater engagement in this year’s elections among both Democrats and Republicans than in the last midterm election in 2014. The Democratic wave is building: Voters who say they intend to support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district are far more enthusiastic than in the two midterm elections under former President Barack Obama – they’re even more enthusiastic than at this point in the Democratic landslide year of 2006.
But that Democratic wave may be crashing against a well-fortified GOP wall. Enthusiasm among Republicans about voting is higher now than in every midterm election going back to 1994 – the only exception was June 2010, just before a GOP wave netted the party 63 seats and control of the House of Representatives.
“This is a different midterm than the ones in 2006, 2010 and 2014. In those midterms, you had one party that was more enthusiastic,” said Carroll Doherty, the director of political research at the Pew Research Center. “In this current scenario, at least in this early data, you find high enthusiasm among both parties.”
A majority of all registered voters, 51 percent, say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year. That’s greater than 40 percent in July 2014, 46 percent in June 2010 or 38 percent in June 2006. Democrats are slightly more enthusiastic than Republicans: 55 percent of voters who say they intend to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district say they are more enthusiastic than usual, compared to 50 percent of Republican voters.
But the gap between supporters of each party is smaller than in recent elections. In June 2006, 47 percent of Democratic voters were enthusiastic, but only 30 percent of Republican voters were enthusiastic. In June 2010, voters backing Republicans were 13 points higher on this question than those supporting Democrats. The GOP lead was slightly smaller in 2014: 8 points.
Voters aren’t just more enthusiastic – they are more likely to be driven by the national battles for control of both chambers of Congress. More than two-thirds of voters, 68 percent, say that which party controls Congress will be a factor in their vote this year – the greatest share Pew has measured in a midterm going back to 1998.
But the president’s role as a catalyst for voter enthusiasm on both sides of the political divide is more important than at any point in recent political history.
Roughly a third of voters, 34 percent, say they consider their vote for Congress a vote against Trump – higher than for either election under Obama (29 percent in 2014 and 28 percent in 2010).
But despite the focus on Trump and his low approval ratings – just 40 percent among all Americans in the new Pew survey – the survey suggests he may not be the drag on his party that Obama was in 2010, or George W. Bush was in 2006.
More than a quarter of voters, 26 percent, say they think of their vote for Congress as a vote for Trump – greater than for any president since Bush in the 2002 midterms, held in the shadow of the 2001 terrorist attacks on the U.S.
“Trump is, on balance, a more negative than positive factor,” said Doherty. “But he is motivating about half of the voters in his own party.”
Overall, Democrats have a 5-point lead on the House generic ballot, 48 percent to 43 percent. That is unchanged from the previous Pew survey, in late April and early May – and is in line with what experts say suggests a close battle for control of the House.
The poll shows the same cleavages that have roiled American politics over the past few years are likely to define the midterms. An undeniable gender gap is taking shape: Male voters back Republicans by a 6-point margin, while Democrats have a 16-point lead among women. Republicans have a 10-point advantage among white voters, but Democrats lead by 59 and 33 points among black and Hispanic voters, respectively.
White voters continue to split sharply along educational lines, with more-educated whites shifting toward Democrats. White voters with a college degree support Democrats by a 12-point margin, 53 percent to 41 percent. But among whites without a college degree, Republicans hold a 23-point lead, 57 percent to 34 percent.
In 2014, Republicans won whites with a college degree by 16 points and non-college whites by 30 points, according to exit polls.
Democrats lead by 20 points among voters younger than age 35 – 57 percent to 37 percent. There is a large gender gap among millennial voters. Women under 35 back Democrats by a more-than-two-to-one margin, 68 percent to 24 percent. But younger men are almost evenly divided on the generic ballot, with Republicans holding a statistically insignificant, 3-point lead.
Among all other age groups, the two parties are neck-and-neck, and the gender gap is narrower. Among voters 50 and older, Republicans lead by 5 points among men, and Democrats lead by 3 among women.
The Pew Research Center survey was conducted June 5-12, prior to the most recent uproar over immigration officials separating families at the country’s southern border. The poll surveyed 2,002 adults, 1,608 of whom said they were registered to vote. The margin of sampling error for the overall poll is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, and the margin of error for results among registered voters is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
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