Democrats face a political minefield ahead of President Donald Trump’s historic North Korea meeting: how to root for success for a president they usually want to see flounder.
Trump is reportedly reevaluating the prospects for a significant denuclearization commitment from Kim Jong Un, but if he manages to land a foreign policy coup that has eluded past presidents, it couldn’t come at a worse time for Democrats.
The party is planning to center its midterm campaign message around the numerous scandals engulfing the administration. A successful meeting with Kim, however, would give Trump and the GOP – already encouraged by record-low unemployment and other positive economic indicators – a big morale boost just a few months before the November midterms.
Still, Democrats know they can’t cheer for a diplomatic failure that could heighten U.S.-North Korea tensions and potentially trigger a worldwide crisis. So they’re raising concerns from the sidelines for now, declaring hope for a Trump-Kim breakthrough, while dismissing it as a long shot at best.
“President Trump has engaged in a type of Twitter diplomacy that is unprecedented in our history, a degree of bombast and public threat followed by conciliation and offers of negotiation,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said in a recent interview. “Perhaps that’s the unexpected key that unlocks the riddle of dealing with North Korea. I’ll be very surprised if that’s the case.”
With the planned summit nearing, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in headed to Washington on Tuesday, Coons underscored the fine line that his party must walk.
“It is important to emphasize that Democrats want America to succeed, and that means in this negotiation we want the president to succeed,” he said. “But not at any cost.”
Democrats have been optimistic about their chances to retake control of the House in November, though they face longer odds to win back the Senate. Republicans and the White House, meanwhile, would benefit from a signature foreign policy accomplishment to campaign on, particularly given the less-than-guaranteed appeal of the massive tax bill the GOP forced through Congress last year.
Well aware that Republicans will try to tout foreign policy efforts, Democrats are already setting the bar high for any prospective North Korea deal, even as they profess to remain on Trump’s team ahead of the June summit. Recent interviews with a dozen House and Senate Democrats show the minority party carving out two key warnings to the president: Avoid any deal that leaves Kim’s nuclear capability intact or that cedes too much regional sway to China.
“I really worry that the president is so desperate to get a deal that he’s going to sign a pretty terrible one that would guarantee North Korea remains a nuclear power,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said. “I also worry he’ll sign a deal that will give away far too much of our influence in the region, allowing China to run roughshod over its neighbors.”
“At the same time,” Murphy added, “I can’t bring myself to engage in a certain blind opposition simply because I’m worried.”
Trump himself has underscored that full denuclearization of the Korean peninsula remains his goal, despite Pyongyang’s recent declaration that any insistence on “unilateral” disarmament in exchange for economic aid would force it to back away from the negotiating table.
Democrats are using the Obama administration’s Iran nuclear deal – which Trump pulled the U.S. out of this year – as a benchmark, pushing for denuclearization without wiggle room and with measures in place to verify North Korea abides by any compact. Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) pointed to provisions of the Iran pact that he said should be included in any agreement with Kim, including third-party inspections of North Korea’s nuclear program that can yield “verifiable results.”
Other Democrats say Trump’s decision to back out of the Iran deal, while popular with his base and a campaign pledge, means he will have to meet even tougher standards with a North Korea accord.
“Because Trump ripped up Iran because it wasn’t adequate – even though it was working – that means the threshold has moved way up,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), co-chairman of the Korea Caucus.
“It can’t be an Iran-like agreement. It is absolute denuclearization, total and complete, and absolute verification of same, total and complete. Anything less than that is failure.”
Beyond the substance of any future deal, Democrats are also starting to define a critique of Trump’s freewheeling style ahead of his date with North Korea’s erratic leader.
“We’re very clearly grading on a curve, right? Because it is absolutely smart for him to walk back from war, but that doesn’t mean he’s handling this properly,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said.
Some Democrats worry that Trump’s constant boasting about his skills as a dealmaker will lead him to feel an urgency to reach some agreement with Kim, even if it’s not beneficial to the United States.
The president was quick to accept a meeting with Kim, to the dismay of some on Capitol Hill, and the White House has released a commemorative coin promoting the summit featuring profiles of Trump and Kim, even though the peace talks haven’t yet started.
“The fact that we’ve agreed to a meeting has already given [Kim] a lot of credence in his own circles,” said Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), a Marine veteran who sits on the House Armed Services Committee. Trump’s “vanity is going to get him to try to cut a deal that will be against the interest of the U.S. and its allies for him just to be able to say he cut a deal.”
Democrats also say they’re worried about the team Trump is taking with him to the high-stakes talks.
Many key positions in the administration related to the Korean peninsula remain unfilled; the White House just nominated an ambassador to South Korea last week. And both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton – critical negotiators in any serious talks with North Korea – are new to their jobs.
“What we all worry about – and I’m sure if you gave truth serum, Republicans share this concern: an unprepared, naive president who doesn’t read memos, loses patience with briefings and is grossly understaffed for such a monumental summit,” Connolly said. “What could go wrong with all of this?”
Other Democrats said Trump should consult Congress on the parameters of any denuclearization deal with Kim. While few drew a hard line as to whether Trump should formally submit any North Korea pact he negotiates to the Senate as a treaty, which the Obama administration opted against doing with the Iran nuclear deal, several lawmakers made clear their view that Capitol Hill should have a central role to play.
“It’s got to be in close consultation with Congress, so that we know the strategies throughout the whole process, starting now,” Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) said. “But I don’t see a confrontational situation. I think that we want to work together.”
Still, despite a wariness of giving Trump too much credit before the summit even takes place, Democrats praised Trump for choosing talks over threats. Durbin said that “I salute” the president for helping secure the release earlier this month of three American prisoners held in North Korea.
“I’ve got a kid in the military. If it’s good for our safety, then I’m going to say good things about it,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said.
“I think what he did in Iran is already making the world less safe,” Kaine added. “That really troubles me. But I don’t have the same criticism of what they’re doing with North Korea.”
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